Market
What will be the impact on WHO's operations due to U.S. withdrawal by December 31, 2025?
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Donald Trump•United States•World Health Organization•WHO•Financial Times•Trump•China•Joe Biden•Lawrence Gostin•Ashish Jha•Biden
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant disruption • 25%
Moderate disruption • 25%
Minor disruption • 25%
No noticeable disruption • 25%
Reports or statements from the WHO or relevant health organizations
Story
Trump's Team Plans U.S. WHO Withdrawal on January 20, Impacting 16% of Budget
Dec 22, 2024, 10:15 AM
Donald Trump's transition team is reportedly planning to withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO) on the first day of his new administration, January 20, according to the Financial Times. The move would remove the WHO's largest source of funding, which could impair its ability to respond to global health crises like the coronavirus pandemic. Trump had previously initiated a withdrawal from the WHO in 2020, accusing it of being under China's control, but the process was halted by President Joe Biden upon his inauguration in 2021. The U.S. contributes about 16% of the WHO's budget, and experts like Lawrence Gostin and Ashish Jha warn that a withdrawal could leave a significant gap in global health financing and leadership. Some within Trump's team are said to want to act quickly to symbolically reverse Biden's decision to rejoin the WHO on his first day in office.
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No discernible impact • 25%
Severe impact on global health initiatives • 25%
Moderate impact with some initiatives affected • 25%
Minimal impact, operations continue smoothly • 25%
Increase in funding • 25%
Significant decrease in funding • 25%
Moderate decrease in funding • 25%
No change in funding • 25%
No noticeable impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
Minor negative impact • 25%
Implement policy changes • 25%
Initiate dialogue with US • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Seek new partnerships • 25%
Increased Influence of Other Nations • 25%
Reduced Global Health Funding • 25%
Weakened Pandemic Response • 25%
Other • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. fully withdraws • 25%
U.S. reverses decision • 25%
U.S. negotiates new terms with WHO • 25%
Completion of withdrawal • 25%
Reversal of decision • 25%
Formal negotiations initiated • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Plans for restructuring WHO funding • 25%
Criticism of the U.S. decision • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Calls for increased funding from other nations • 25%
Increase collaboration with other countries • 25%
Seek new funding sources • 25%
Reform internal policies • 25%
Other strategies • 25%
Increase outreach to other countries • 25%
Publicly criticize the U.S. decision • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Adjust funding strategies • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
US withdraws from WHO • 25%
US remains in WHO • 25%
US reconsiders but no decision • 25%