Market
What will be the impact on Moldova's political stability due to the gas crisis by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased instability • 25%
Decreased instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Reports from international organizations or major news outlets
Story
Transnistria Cuts Heating and Hot Water on January 1, 2025, After Russian Gas Supply Halted via Ukraine
Jan 1, 2025, 09:43 AM
The breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria has cut heating and hot water supplies to households following the cessation of Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine. The halt in gas supply occurred after the expiration of a transit deal between Russia and Ukraine on January 1, 2025. The local energy company, Tirasteploenergo, announced that the heating cuts took effect at 7 a.m. local time, with exemptions for hospitals. Residents have been advised to dress warmly, gather in single rooms, and avoid using gas or electric stoves for heating due to safety concerns. Transnistria, a pro-Russian entity that separated from Moldova post-Soviet Union collapse, had been receiving gas via Ukraine. The region's parliament had previously appealed to Russia for a new agreement to continue gas supplies. About 1,500 Russian troops are stationed in Transnistria. Until the expiry of the deal, Russia was supplying Moldova with about 2 billion cubic metres of gas annually, which was used to power the Kuciurgan power plant in Transnistria. Moldova accuses Russia of using its energy dependence to destabilize the country, a claim Russia denies.
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Moderate economic impact • 25%
Minimal economic impact • 25%
Economic growth despite challenges • 25%
Severe economic downturn • 25%
State of emergency extended • 25%
State of emergency ends without securing gas supply • 25%
State of emergency ends with secured gas supply • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful agreements with Ukraine • 25%
Successful agreements with Romania • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No agreements reached • 25%
Debt unpaid and supply cut • 25%
Other • 25%
Alternative supply secured • 25%
Debt paid and supply continues • 25%
1-2% growth • 25%
0-1% growth • 25%
Negative growth • 25%
Above 2% growth • 25%
Gazprom's claim upheld • 25%
Compromise settlement • 25%
Moldova's claim upheld • 25%
No resolution by end of 2025 • 25%
Increase by less than 10% • 25%
Increase by 10-20% • 25%
Increase by more than 20% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
