Market
What will be the impact of the U.S. foreign aid suspension on Ukraine's economy by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant negative impact • 25%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
Reports from international financial institutions or credible economic analysis
Story
Trump Administration Suspends Most Foreign Aid for 90 Days, Including Ukraine; Israel and Egypt Exempt
Jan 24, 2025, 09:23 PM
The Trump administration has issued an immediate suspension of most U.S. foreign aid programs worldwide for 90 days, pending a policy review, according to a State Department memo. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered the halt, which includes stop-work orders on existing grants and contracts. The pause applies to both new and existing assistance, encompassing aid to Ukraine and other key allies such as Jordan and Taiwan. Waivers have been issued for military financing to Israel and Egypt, allowing aid to those countries to continue. Exceptions are also made for emergency food programs. The impact on military assistance to Ukraine remains unclear; while some reports suggest that military aid is exempt from the suspension, others indicate that USAID officials responsible for projects in Ukraine have been instructed to stop work, including support for schools and health assistance. A Pentagon official stated that the executive order does not affect military support to Ukraine, suggesting that security assistance may continue.
View original story
Similar markets
GDP contraction • 25%
GDP growth 0% to 2% • 25%
GDP growth 2% to 5% • 25%
GDP growth > 5% • 25%
Partial approval • 25%
Rejection • 25%
Postponement • 25%
Full approval • 25%
Moderate Advantage for Ukraine • 25%
Advantage for Russia • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Significant Advantage for Ukraine • 25%
Minor disruption with temporary delays • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Major disruption to aid programs • 25%
Other unforeseen impacts • 25%
Decrease in aid • 25%
No change in aid • 25%
Increase in aid • 25%
Aid suspended • 25%
New conditions imposed • 25%
Decreased aid • 25%
Aid remains unchanged • 25%
Increased aid • 25%
Military strengthening • 25%
Debt reduction • 25%
Infrastructure development • 25%
GDP growth • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Education • 25%
Healthcare • 25%
Economic development • 25%
Other sectors • 25%
No Change • 25%
Moderate Improvement • 25%
Significant Improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Russia • 25%
North Korea • 25%
China • 25%
Iran • 25%
Stop completely • 25%
Increase • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Remain the same • 25%