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What will be the economic impact of the $3.5 billion financing package on El Salvador by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant positive impact • 25%
Moderate positive impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Economic performance reports and analyses from international financial institutions
Story
El Salvador Secures $1.4 Billion IMF Loan, Agrees to $3.5 Billion Financing Package and Chivo Wallet Discontinuation
Dec 19, 2024, 01:39 PM
El Salvador has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $1.4 billion loan, part of a broader $3.5 billion financing package aimed at supporting the country’s economic reforms. This agreement, which follows four years of negotiations, includes significant changes to El Salvador's Bitcoin policies. The government has agreed to make the acceptance of Bitcoin voluntary for private sector businesses and to limit public sector involvement in Bitcoin-related activities. Additionally, the Chivo wallet, the government's Bitcoin wallet, is set to be sold or discontinued. The deal is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board and is intended to help stabilize the country's economy and address its debt-to-GDP ratio.
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Increased GDP growth • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Debt reduction • 25%
Reduced inflation • 25%
More than $3 billion • 25%
$2-3 billion • 25%
$1-2 billion • 25%
Less than $1 billion • 25%
Improved fiscal balance • 25%
Reduced inflation • 25%
Increased GDP growth • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Decreased lending • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
No change • 25%
Increased lending • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful fiscal health improvement • 25%
Partial improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Loan secured without Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Loan secured with Bitcoin policy change • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Loan not secured • 25%
Growth between 2% and 5% • 25%
Growth above 5% • 25%
Economic contraction • 25%
Growth between 0% and 2% • 25%