What will be the economic impact of the debt ceiling crisis by the end of Q2 2025?
Recession • 25%
Slowdown • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major economic research institutions or government economic data releases
U.S. Treasury to Implement Extraordinary Measures as Debt Ceiling Hits $36.373 Trillion
Jan 21, 2025, 03:46 AM
Outgoing U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has announced that the United States will begin implementing "extraordinary measures" on January 21 to avoid breaching the federal debt ceiling, which has been reached at $36.373 trillion. Yellen's letter to Congress emphasized the urgent need to protect the "full faith and credit" of the U.S. government and called on lawmakers to act promptly to raise or suspend the debt limit. These measures include suspending investments in the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund, actions that will not affect federal retirees and employees. The measures are expected to last until March 14, though their duration is uncertain. The debt ceiling does not authorize new spending but prevents the government from borrowing further to meet existing obligations. Yellen warned that failure to address the debt ceiling could lead to the U.S. defaulting on its obligations, a scenario that could have severe economic consequences. This announcement comes just before the Trump administration assumes office, inheriting the fiscal challenges associated with the debt ceiling.
View original story
Recession occurs • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Economic growth accelerates • 34%
Rating upgraded • 25%
Rating remains stable • 25%
Rating downgraded • 25%
Other • 25%
Debt ceiling abolished • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
Debt ceiling unchanged • 25%
Extended to 2029 • 25%
No change • 25%
Extended with a different date • 25%
Abolished • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Abolished • 25%
Increased • 25%
Suspended • 25%
National debt level • 25%
Inflation rate • 25%
Interest rates • 25%
Stock market performance • 25%
Credit rating downgraded • 25%
Credit rating remains stable • 25%
No change or report by deadline • 25%
Credit rating upgraded • 25%
Credit rating maintained • 25%
Credit rating upgraded • 25%
No change or action • 25%
Credit rating downgraded • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%
Extraordinary measures extended • 25%
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
U.S. defaults • 25%
Other • 25%
Credit rating upgraded • 25%
Credit rating unchanged • 25%
Credit rating downgraded • 25%
Other legislative action • 25%
No resolution reached • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
Government default • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Downgrade • 25%
Outlook change • 25%