Market
What will be the cocoa market status by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Surplus • 25%
Balanced • 25%
Deficit • 25%
Severe Deficit • 25%
Reports from ICE Futures exchange and major financial news outlets
Story
Hershey Seeks CFTC Approval to Buy Over 90,000 Metric Tons of Cocoa, Nine Times More Than Allowed, Amid Record Prices
Jan 8, 2025, 06:04 PM
Hershey is seeking approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to purchase over 90,000 metric tons of cocoa on the ICE Futures exchange in New York. This request comes amid global cocoa shortages that have driven prices to record levels. The chocolate manufacturer aims to acquire nine times more cocoa than is typically allowed by the exchange, as the cocoa market is projected to experience another deficit.
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Increase by 10-20% • 25%
Remain stable • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase by more than 20% • 25%
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Continues under new management • 25%
Rebranded and relaunched • 25%
Permanently shut down • 25%
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Decrease in both • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased awareness but not consumption • 25%
$40 billion to $45 billion • 25%
Below $35 billion • 25%
$35 billion to $40 billion • 25%
Above $45 billion • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Failed acquisition • 25%
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Successful acquisition • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Acquisition completed • 25%
Mondelez withdraws bid • 25%
Acquisition rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Both perform equally • 25%
Other • 25%
Hershey outperforms Mondelez • 25%
Mondelez outperforms Hershey • 25%
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Neutral • 25%
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Moderately positive • 25%
Significant decline (more than 10%) • 25%
Moderate decline (5-10%) • 25%
Little to no change • 25%
Increase • 25%
