Market
What will be public opinion on FDA's nicotine rule by end of 2025?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority support • 25%
Mixed opinions • 25%
Majority oppose • 25%
Indifference • 25%
Public opinion polls and surveys
Story
FDA Advances 11th Hour Rule to Lower Cigarette Nicotine; Critics Warn of 'Gift to Cartels'
Jan 7, 2025, 09:07 PM
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is advancing an "11th hour proposal" in the final days of the Biden administration to lower nicotine levels in cigarettes, effectively banning most cigarettes currently on the market in favor of lower-nicotine alternatives. The proposal has reportedly cleared White House review and may be published before FDA Commissioner Dr. Robert Califf leaves office. Supporters argue that reducing nicotine levels could significantly improve public health and save thousands of lives. However, critics, including former Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) agents, warn that the move could fuel black-market operations and is a "gift to organized crime cartels."
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Majority support • 25%
Unclear/Other • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Majority oppose • 25%
Majority opposing • 25%
Majority supporting • 25%
Not disclosed • 25%
Mixed feedback • 25%
Proposal finalized and implemented • 25%
Proposal finalized but not implemented • 25%
Proposal blocked by administration • 25%
Proposal withdrawn by FDA • 25%
Finalized with changes • 25%
No decision • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Finalized without changes • 25%
Moderate reduction in smoking rates • 25%
Significant reduction in smoking rates • 25%
No change in smoking rates • 25%
Increase in smoking rates • 25%
Implemented as proposed • 25%
Modified and implemented • 25%
No decision • 25%
Rejected • 25%
100,000 to 500,000 • 25%
Less than 100,000 • 25%
500,001 to 1,000,000 • 25%
More than 1,000,000 • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease by more than 10% • 25%
Decrease by 5-10% • 25%
Decrease by less than 5% • 25%