Market
What will be identified as the primary method of H5N1 transmission in the U.S. by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Bird-to-human • 25%
Human-to-human • 25%
Environment-to-human • 25%
Other • 25%
CDC or academic research publications
Story
CDC Confirms First Severe H5N1 Bird Flu Case in Louisiana, Experts Urge FDA Authorization for 5 Million Vaccine Doses
Dec 29, 2024, 02:31 PM
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed the first severe case of H5N1 bird flu in the U.S., showing mutations that have prompted warnings from experts about the potential for another pandemic. The case involves a 65-year-old man from Louisiana who had contact with sick backyard birds. Genetic analysis revealed mutations in the virus's hemagglutinin (HA) gene, which could enhance its ability to infect humans. Dr. Dean Blumberg, an infectious disease expert, warned that the virus may mutate to become more easily transmitted from person to person. Dr. Deborah Birx, former White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, criticized the CDC for insufficient testing, noting that only 530 tests have been conducted out of over 10,000 exposures monitored. She emphasized the need for increased testing, especially among dairy farm workers, to prevent co-infection with seasonal flu that could lead to further mutations. Additionally, Dr. Leana Wen has called for immediate FDA authorization of H5N1 vaccines, with the Biden Administration having already contracted for nearly 5 million doses.
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Similar markets
Environmental exposure • 25%
Human-to-human • 25%
Animal-to-human • 25%
Other • 25%
Human-to-human transmission • 25%
Raw milk consumption • 25%
Direct contact with infected birds • 25%
Other • 25%
Poultry exposure • 25%
Other • 25%
Raw milk products • 25%
Wildlife exposure • 25%
Wild birds • 25%
Other • 25%
Human-to-human • 25%
Domestic poultry • 25%
Raw Milk • 25%
Poultry • 25%
Livestock • 25%
Other • 25%
Animal-to-Human (other than birds) • 25%
Bird-to-Human • 25%
Human-to-Human • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Other • 25%
Wild birds • 25%
Mammals • 25%
Livestock exposure • 25%
Backyard birds • 25%
Wild birds • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Commercial poultry • 25%
Human-to-human • 25%
Poultry • 25%
Pets (e.g., cats) • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Wild birds • 25%
Backyard flocks • 25%
Commercial poultry • 25%
Other • 25%
Poultry farms • 25%
Other • 25%
Wild birds • 25%
Dairy farms • 25%
Wild birds • 25%
Dairy cows • 25%
Other • 25%
Poultry • 25%