Market
What will be identified as the primary factor for the U.S. immigration surge by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Economic Opportunities • 25%
Political Instability in Origin Countries • 25%
U.S. Immigration Policies • 25%
Climate Change • 25%
Reports or analyses from credible sources such as the New York Times, government reports, or think tanks
Story
Biden Administration Oversaw Largest Immigration Surge in U.S. History, NYT Reports
Dec 11, 2024, 03:01 PM
The Biden administration has overseen the largest immigration surge in U.S. history, according to a New York Times analysis. Over the past four years, the influx of immigrants has surpassed even the peak years at Ellis Island, with an estimated total net migration exceeding 8 million people. Approximately 60% of these migrants entered the country without legal authorization, as per a Goldman Sachs report using government data. This surge has been attributed to a variety of factors, including the administration's record 605 executive actions on immigration, which have touched virtually every aspect of the U.S. immigration system. Despite these actions, the administration has faced criticism from all sides for its perceived weak stance on border policies.
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Similar markets
No significant changes • 25%
Relaxed immigration policies • 25%
Increased immigration restrictions • 25%
Mass deportations initiated • 25%
Economic reasons • 25%
Other • 25%
Deportation • 25%
Voluntary return • 25%
Humanitarian Concerns • 25%
Economic Impact • 25%
National Security • 25%
Political Pressure • 25%
Natural increase • 25%
Net international migration • 25%
Domestic migration • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural Increase • 25%
Net International Migration • 25%
Other • 25%
Domestic Migration • 25%
Natural Increase (Births minus Deaths) • 25%
Immigration • 25%
Internal Migration • 25%
Other • 25%
Anti-H-1B Faction • 25%
Other • 25%
Moderate Faction • 25%
Pro-H-1B Faction • 25%
Strengthening border security • 25%
Deportation of undocumented immigrants • 25%
Other • 25%
Reforming asylum policies • 25%
Other • 25%
Domestic political pressure • 25%
Improved conditions in home countries • 25%
International diplomatic considerations • 25%
Other • 25%
Natural disasters • 25%
Policy changes • 25%
Economic conditions • 25%
Immigration • 25%
Other • 25%
Administrative Adjustments • 25%
Natural Increase • 25%
Other • 25%
International agreements • 25%
Increased border security • 25%
Policy changes • 25%