Market
What will be Hezbollah's strategy in response to the loss of the Syrian supply route by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase local arms production • 25%
Seek new international allies • 25%
Focus on political influence in Lebanon • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Statements from Hezbollah leaders and reports from international news agencies
Story
Hezbollah's Naim Qassem Says Loss of Syrian Supply Route After Assad's Fall Is a Minor Detail
Dec 14, 2024, 04:53 PM
Hezbollah's Secretary-General Naim Qassem has acknowledged that the group has lost its military supply route through Syria following the fall of President Bashar al-Assad nearly a week ago. He stated that losing the supply route is a minor detail that can change over time, emphasizing that Hezbollah's resistance is flexible and committed to continuing. Qassem expressed hope that the new Syrian leadership will view Israel as an enemy and not normalize relations. He noted that Hezbollah cannot judge the new leadership until the situation stabilizes and they take clear positions. Qassem affirmed that the Syrian people have the right to choose their government, constitution, and future, and hopes that all parties in Syria will participate so that governance is based on the will of all Syrian people. He added that what happened in Syria will not affect Lebanon.
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Shift to diplomatic efforts • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased attacks • 25%
Increased attacks • 25%
Increased military activity • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other actions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strengthened capabilities • 25%
Significantly weakened • 25%
Moderately weakened • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in military actions • 25%
Focus on diplomatic measures • 25%
Seek alternative funding sources • 25%
Guerrilla warfare • 25%
Other or no retaliation • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%
Rocket attacks • 25%
No significant retaliation • 25%
Rocket attacks • 25%
Drone strikes • 25%
Ground incursions • 25%
Complies with demands • 25%
Negotiates new terms • 25%
Ignores ultimatum • 25%
Escalates conflict • 25%