Market
What percentage of federal employees will resign under the 'deferred resignation' plan by Feb 6, 2025?
3
Trump•Elon Musk•Twitter•Musk•Office of Personnel Management•OPM•xAI•Neuralink•The Boring Company•Democratic•Tim Kaine•Mark Warner•Kaine
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 5% resign • 25%
5% to 10% resign • 25%
More than 10% resign • 25%
No significant resignations • 25%
Official announcements from the Office of Personnel Management or union reports
Story
Trump Offers Federal Workers Pay to Resign by Feb. 6; Musk's Influence at OPM Raises Concerns
Jan 29, 2025, 08:06 PM
The Trump administration has offered federal employees a "deferred resignation" plan, proposing that those who resign by February 6 will receive pay and benefits through September 30. The unprecedented offer aims to reduce the federal workforce by up to 10% and end work-from-home practices. The proposal has drawn comparisons to Elon Musk's 2022 memo to Twitter employees, and concerns have arisen over Musk's influence in the Office of Personnel Management (OPM). Reports indicate that OPM's top management now includes individuals linked to Musk's companies, such as xAI, Neuralink, and The Boring Company. Unions and Democratic senators, including Tim Kaine and Mark Warner, have condemned the buyout offer, warning employees not to accept it and questioning its legality and the administration's ability to fulfill the promised payments. Kaine cautioned that employees should not be fooled and said, "He'll stiff you just like he stiffed the contractors."
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Similar markets
Less than 5% • 25%
7.5% to 10% • 25%
5% to 7.5% • 25%
More than 10% • 25%
5% to 10% • 25%
More than 15% • 25%
10% to 15% • 25%
Less than 5% • 25%
Less than 5% • 25%
7.6% to 10% • 25%
More than 10% • 25%
5% to 7.5% • 25%
More than 1.5 million • 25%
Less than 500,000 • 25%
500,000 to 1 million • 25%
1 million to 1.5 million • 25%
76-100% • 25%
51-75% • 25%
26-50% • 25%
0-25% • 25%
