Market
What changes will occur in Harris' Philadelphia campaign team by April 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased number of black staffers • 25%
Decreased number of black staffers • 25%
No change in staff composition • 25%
Significant restructuring • 25%
Official announcements from the campaign or credible news reports
Story
Kamala Harris Campaign Avoided Open Primary in 107 Days to Appease Black Women
Dec 7, 2024, 01:57 PM
Quentin Fulks, campaign manager for Kamala Harris, stated that the Democratic Party decided not to hold an open primary to avoid upsetting its key voter base, black women. Fulks explained that opening the primary could have caused significant dissatisfaction among black women if Harris was not the nominee. He noted that the campaign had 107 days to prepare. Reports also indicate that black staffers within the Harris campaign in Philadelphia grew frustrated with the lack of outreach to the Democratic Party's base voters. In response, they reportedly established a secret field office at a Dunkin' Donuts as part of independent efforts to address these concerns.
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Other • 25%
Pete Buttigieg • 25%
Elizabeth Warren • 25%
Cory Booker • 25%
Run for California Governor • 25%
No major announcement • 25%
Pursue other political roles • 25%
Run for President in 2028 • 25%
Run for U.S. President in 2028 • 25%
Run for California Governor in 2026 • 25%
Run for another political office • 25%
Not run for any office • 25%
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Other changes • 25%
No changes • 25%
Major restructuring • 25%
Moderate • 25%
Conservative Democrat • 25%
Other • 25%
Progressive • 25%
Runs for Governor • 25%
Other • 25%
Returns to Senate • 25%
Joins a private organization • 25%
Both • 25%
Neither • 25%
Run for California Governor • 25%
Prepare for 2028 Presidential Run • 25%
Social media policy enforcement • 25%
Staff restructuring • 25%
Other • 25%
Teamwork and collaboration initiatives • 25%
Pete Buttigieg • 25%
Other • 25%
Cory Booker • 25%
Elizabeth Warren • 25%
Neither role • 25%
California Governor • 25%
Declared Presidential Candidate • 25%
Both roles • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Resignation from political position • 25%
Announcement of retirement • 25%
Other significant career change • 25%
California Governor Run • 25%
Both • 25%
2028 Presidential Run • 25%
Neither • 25%