Market
Violence in Catatumbo decreases by 50% by July 2025?
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Gustavo Petro•Catatumbo•National Liberation Army•ELN•FARC•Petro•Norte de Santander•Colombian armed forces
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from Colombian government or international peacekeeping organizations
Story
Colombian President Declares State of Internal Commotion and Economic Emergency Amid 80 Deaths in Catatumbo Violence
Jan 20, 2025, 11:30 PM
Colombian President Gustavo Petro has declared a state of internal commotion and an economic emergency in response to escalating violence in the Catatumbo region. The decision follows a surge in conflict between the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissident factions of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), which has resulted in over 80 deaths. Petro announced the measures on social media, stating that the state of internal commotion and economic emergency are necessary to address the critical public order situation. The region of Norte de Santander, where Catatumbo is located, has been the epicenter of this violence since last Thursday. The president has also reinforced the area with an additional 300 soldiers from the Colombian armed forces, but the clashes between the ELN and FARC dissidents continue. Petro hopes for judicial support for these measures, which allow the executive branch to pass certain legislation without congressional approval for up to 90 days.
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Violence reduced by 50-75% • 25%
Significant reduction in violence • 25%
Moderate reduction in violence • 25%
No change in violence levels • 25%
Increase in violence • 25%
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Yes • 50%
Border remains closed • 25%
Border reopens • 25%
Partial reopening • 25%
Other developments • 25%