Market
U.S. to implement tariffs on Canadian goods by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
The outcome can be determined based on official announcements from the U.S. government or reputable trade news outlets.
Story
Bank of Canada Cuts Rate by 25 Bps to 3%, Ends QT, Warns of Tariff Risks
Jan 29, 2025, 02:56 PM
On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, the sixth consecutive reduction since June, as expected. Amid looming threats of U.S. tariffs, which Governor Tiff Macklem described as a 'major uncertainty' that could significantly impact the economy, the Bank also announced an end to its quantitative tightening program and plans to gradually restart asset purchases in early March to support growth and bolster liquidity. The Bank eliminated forward guidance on further adjustments to borrowing costs, noting that the cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial. The central bank revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 1.8% from 2.1% and expects inflation to average 2.3% in 2025. The Bank estimated that a global tariff war with the U.S. could reduce Canadian GDP by 2.5 percentage points in the first year and an additional 1.5 percentage points in the second year.
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