Market
U.S. Census Bureau's updated immigration estimate released by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
The official U.S. Census Bureau website or press releases.
Story
U.S. Census Bureau to Include Refugees in Immigrant Count, Revising 2021-2023 Estimate from 2.5M to 7.1M
Dec 17, 2024, 01:44 AM
The U.S. Census Bureau has announced a significant change in its methodology for counting immigrants, specifically by including refugees in its immigrant count. This adjustment aims to provide a more comprehensive estimate of the immigrant population, particularly those admitted for humanitarian and often temporary reasons. The Census Bureau's decision comes in light of previous underestimations of net immigration figures for 2021-2023, which were reported as 2.5 million. In contrast, the Congressional Budget Office, which accounted for the border surge, estimated the figure to be 7.1 million. The Census Bureau is expected to release updated immigration estimates in its next population report, reflecting these changes in methodology.
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