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Primary outcome of EU's 15th sanctions package against Russia by Dec 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant reduction in Russian oil exports • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions without significant economic impact • 25%
Russia circumvents the sanctions effectively • 25%
Other significant outcomes • 25%
Analyses from major international relations think tanks or reports from the European Union
Story
EU Targets Russia's Shadow Fleet in 15th Sanctions Package
Dec 11, 2024, 03:03 PM
The European Union has reached a preliminary agreement on a 15th package of sanctions against Russia in response to its ongoing aggression in Ukraine. EU ambassadors have approved measures targeting Russia's 'shadow fleet' of ships used to bypass the G7 price cap on seaborne oil, as well as individual sanctions and restrictions on vessels from third countries acting in Russia's interests. This new package expands existing sanctions and aims to counter efforts to circumvent them. The agreement, announced by the Hungarian EU presidency, comes after initial reports of a failure to reach a consensus among EU envoys, highlighting the complexity of the negotiations.
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Military goods • 25%
Other • 25%
Financial institutions • 25%
Energy sector • 25%
Support for Ukraine • 25%
Hybrid warfare • 25%
Economic pressure • 25%
Human rights violations • 25%
Minor reduction in shadow fleet operations • 25%
Significant reduction in shadow fleet operations • 25%
Increase in shadow fleet operations • 25%
No noticeable impact on shadow fleet operations • 25%
Technology exports • 25%
Energy sector • 25%
Military supplies • 25%
Financial institutions • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic retaliation • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Energy • 25%
Military • 25%
Shipping • 25%
Technology • 25%
Oil and Gas • 25%
Financial Services • 25%
Technology • 25%
Transportation • 25%
Energy sector • 25%
Technology exports • 25%
Military support entities • 25%
Financial institutions • 25%