Market
Primary group implicated in Bolsonaro coup plot by June 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military personnel • 25%
Political allies • 25%
Foreign entities • 25%
Other • 25%
Investigation reports or official statements from Brazilian authorities
Story
Bolsonaro Implicated in Assassination Plot and Military Coup Against Lula
Nov 30, 2024, 01:51 PM
Brazilian federal police have uncovered a plot to assassinate President Lula da Silva, involving former President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies, according to declassified documents. The investigation has revealed that Bolsonaro was 'fully aware' of the assassination plot, which aimed to prevent Lula from assuming office in 2023. The conspiracy involved elite military personnel, war-grade weaponry, and chemical agents, with plans to target not only Lula but also his vice president and a high-ranking judge. The plot was part of a broader scheme to overthrow Brazil's democratic system through a military coup, which Bolsonaro allegedly helped to mastermind. The police report details how the plot was organized into various commands for disinformation, agitation within military barracks, espionage, and logistics, involving 37 accused conspirators.
View original story
Similar markets
Denial of involvement • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Acknowledgement of involvement • 25%
No official stance • 25%
Marcelo Câmara • 25%
Valdemar Costa Neto • 25%
Jair Bolsonaro • 25%
Sandro Nunes Vieira • 25%
No Action • 25%
Ongoing Investigation • 25%
Investigation Closed • 25%
Further Arrests • 25%
Charged but not convicted • 25%
Cleared of charges • 25%
Case ongoing • 25%
Convicted • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No action • 25%
Plea deal • 25%
Indictment • 25%
Acquittal • 25%
