Market
Primary cause of crude oil price changes by July 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
US sanctions • 25%
Weather conditions • 25%
OPEC decisions • 25%
Other factors • 25%
Analysis reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) or expert economic analysis
Story
US Sanctions May Disrupt Russian, Iranian Oil Supply, Targeting 183 Vessels
Jan 15, 2025, 10:46 AM
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported that new US sanctions targeting Russian and Iranian oil, announced last Friday, could significantly disrupt Russia's oil supply chains. These measures include blacklisting 183 vessels, with 160 tankers transporting approximately 22% of Russia's seaborne oil exports in 2024. Eight of these vessels were identified as transporting both Russian and Iranian oil. The sanctions, part of a broader effort to curb Russian and Iranian oil revenues, are expected to tighten crude and product balances. The IEA also noted that earlier vessel designations had reduced the activity of designated tankers by 90%. The measures aim to address a "shadow fleet" using high-risk shipping practices to evade detection, with some vessels transporting oil at prices exceeding the $60-per-barrel cap set by G7 countries. Additionally, the IEA highlighted a recent rise in crude prices to over $80 per barrel due to these developments and cold weather in the Northern Hemisphere.
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U.S. sanctions on Russia • 25%
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