Market
Outcome of UK-Brazil deportation controversy by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
UK admits involuntary deportations • 25%
Itamaraty confirms voluntary returns • 25%
No official resolution • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Reports from international media and official statements from UK and Brazilian governments
Story
UK Deports Over 600 Brazilians in Secret Flights, Itamaraty Denies Deportations
Dec 1, 2024, 06:34 PM
The UK government has reportedly deported over 600 Brazilians, including 109 children, in what has been described as 'secret flights' between August and September this year, according to the British newspaper The Guardian. The Brazilian Foreign Ministry (Itamaraty) has denied these claims, stating that the returns were voluntary. The UK government classified these flights as 'voluntary' and offered incentives of up to £3,000 (approximately R$ 22,813) to encourage voluntary return. The deportations have sparked controversy and concern over the treatment of Brazilian immigrants in the UK.
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Settlements reached • 25%
UK wins all challenges • 25%
UK loses all challenges • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Operation halted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Operation continues unchanged • 25%
Operation modified • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Legal action • 25%
Other actions • 25%
No official response • 25%
National Immigration Law Center • 25%
Other • 25%
American Immigration Council • 25%
ACLU • 25%
100 to 299 • 25%
500 or more • 25%
300 to 499 • 25%
Less than 100 • 25%
Successful agreements • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Partial agreements • 25%
No agreements • 25%
Diplomatic tensions rise • 25%
Spy expelled from UK • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Not guilty plea • 25%
Guilty plea • 25%
Charges dropped • 25%
Allowed to stay in Lebanon • 25%
Released without deportation • 25%
Deported to UAE • 25%
Deported to another country • 25%