Market
Outcome of Speaker of the House vote on Jan 3, 2025
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House Mike Johnson•Congress•Republican Party•Donald Trump•Elon Musk•Johnson•Thomas Massie•Bob Good•Republicans•Trump•Chip Roy•House Freedom Caucus•Victoria Spartz•Matt Gaetz
Resolution / Starting Odds
Mike Johnson elected on first ballot • 25%
Mike Johnson elected after multiple ballots • 25%
Another candidate elected • 25%
No Speaker elected on January 3, 2025 • 25%
Official voting records from the U.S. House of Representatives
Story
Speaker Mike Johnson Faces Crucial Vote Amid GOP Defections Despite Trump's Endorsement
Jan 3, 2025, 02:59 PM
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson faces a critical re-election vote as the 119th Congress convenes, with his Speakership in jeopardy due to the Republican Party's razor-thin majority—the narrowest in nearly 100 years. Despite endorsements from President-elect Donald Trump, Elon Musk, and other conservative leaders, Johnson's bid is uncertain as Representatives Thomas Massie, a 'hard no,' and Bob Good have declared they will vote against him. With Republicans holding 219 seats and Johnson needing 218 votes, he can afford to lose only one member. Trump has been actively lobbying undecided representatives, including Rep. Chip Roy, to secure Johnson's re-election. Johnson met with members of the House Freedom Caucus to address concerns, and Victoria Spartz has announced her support, potentially bolstering his chances. Johnson remains confident, stating, 'I think so,' when asked if he expects to win on the first ballot. Allies like Rep. Matt Gaetz predict Johnson will secure the Speakership on the first ballot.
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Similar markets
Mike Johnson elected on first ballot • 25%
Democrat elected • 25%
Mike Johnson elected on subsequent ballot • 25%
Another Republican elected • 25%
Democratic candidate • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Another Republican candidate • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Hakeem Jeffries • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Other • 25%
No winner on first ballot • 25%
Mike Johnson wins • 25%
Byron Donalds wins • 25%
Another candidate wins • 25%
Current Speaker • 25%
A Republican Member • 25%
A Democratic Member • 25%
Other • 25%
Kevin McCarthy • 25%
Hakeem Jeffries • 25%
Steve Scalise • 25%
Other • 25%
Bob Good • 25%
Other • 25%
Thomas Massie • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Tom Emmer • 25%
Steve Scalise • 25%
Other • 25%
Challenger 2 • 25%
Challenger 1 • 25%
Other Republican • 25%
Democratic Candidate • 25%
No Speaker Elected • 25%
Victoria Spartz • 25%
Thomas Massie • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Other • 25%
Majority GOP support • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Bipartisan support • 25%
Majority Democratic support • 25%
Other • 25%
Tom Emmer • 25%
Jim Jordan • 25%
Mike Johnson • 25%
Democrat • 33%
Republican • 33%
Other/Coalition • 34%