Market
Outcome of Serbian protests against surveillance by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Government policy change • 25%
Increased protests • 25%
Protests subside • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from credible news sources on protest outcomes
Story
Amnesty Reports Serbian Authorities Using Cellebrite Spyware to Target Dozens of Journalists and Activists, December 16, 2024
Dec 16, 2024, 10:19 AM
A recent report by Amnesty International has revealed that Serbian authorities have been employing advanced digital surveillance technology, including spyware and forensic extraction tools, to unlawfully monitor journalists and activists. The report, published on December 16, 2024, cites digital forensic evidence and testimonies from affected individuals, indicating that dozens of journalists and activists have had their phones hacked in recent months. Serbian police reportedly utilized Cellebrite technology to unlock devices and install spyware, which has raised significant concerns about privacy violations and the suppression of free speech in the country. The report highlights that both homegrown and Israeli-made spyware have been used in these operations, further complicating the issue of digital rights in Serbia amidst ongoing protests and civil unrest.
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Government support increases • 25%
No significant public reaction • 25%
Protests occur • 25%
Other reactions • 25%
Current laws maintained • 25%
Laws relaxed • 25%
Other legislative outcomes • 25%
Stricter regulations enacted • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other outcomes • 25%
Sanctions imposed • 25%
Diplomatic warnings issued • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other official • 25%
Minister of Interior • 25%
President of Serbia • 25%
Prime Minister of Serbia • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other significant outcomes • 25%
Protests escalate into violent clashes • 25%
Protests dissipate without change • 25%
Protests lead to government concessions • 25%