Market
Outcome of Abedini's legal situation by April 30, 2025?
2
Carlo Nordio•Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi•Milan•Opera Penitentiary•United States•Abedini•US•Nordio•Milan Court of Appeal•Italy•Iranian•Iran
Resolution / Starting Odds
Released without charges • 25%
Extradited to the US • 25%
Returned to Iran • 25%
Detained in Italy • 25%
Official announcements from Italian, US, or Iranian authorities
Story
Italy Seeks to Revoke Arrest of Swiss-Iranian Engineer Abedini Detained at US Request
Jan 12, 2025, 02:22 PM
Italian Justice Minister Carlo Nordio has requested the revocation of the arrest of Swiss-Iranian engineer Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi, detained in Milan's Opera Penitentiary at the request of the United States. Abedini was arrested in December on allegations of supplying drone technology used in a 2024 attack that killed three US soldiers. Nordio's request, filed with the Milan Court of Appeal, states that there is no evidence supporting the accusations, including any involvement in terrorism, and that the conditions for extradition are not met under Article 2 of the extradition treaty, as the alleged crimes are not recognized in both Italy and the requesting country. Iranian media report that Abedini is expected to return to Iran in the coming hours.
View original story
Similar markets
Exonerated • 25%
Case dropped • 25%
Convicted • 25%
Awaiting trial • 25%
Extradition request not submitted • 25%
Extradition approved • 25%
Case still pending • 25%
Extradition denied • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Abedini remains detained in Italy • 25%
Abedini extradited to U.S. • 25%
Abedini released • 25%
Charged and tried in Italy • 25%
Still detained awaiting decision • 25%
Extradited to the US • 25%
Released without extradition • 25%
Extradition denied • 25%
Extradition approved • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Not extradited • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Extradited to the US • 25%
Released without extradition • 25%
Switzerland • 25%
Italy • 25%
United States • 25%
Other • 25%
Released in Italy • 25%
Extradited to the US • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Returned to Iran • 25%
US continues pursuit without new charges • 25%
Charges filed in another country • 25%
US drops charges • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Extradited to another country • 25%
Convicted in Italy • 25%