Official announcements from OPEC+

IEA Predicts 2025 Oil Surplus Despite OPEC+ Cuts, Driven by Non-OPEC+ Supply

Dec 12, 2024, 11:34 AM

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that global oil markets will see a surplus next year despite the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, extending production cuts. According to the IEA, global oil supply is expected to grow by 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, driven by increased production from non-OPEC+ countries like the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. This growth will outpace demand, which is projected to rise by 1.1 million bpd, leading to an oversupply of 950,000 bpd. The IEA also revised its demand growth forecast for 2024 downwards to 840,000 bpd from the previous estimate of 920,000 bpd. OPEC, on the other hand, has cut its global demand growth forecasts for both this year and next. Despite these adjustments, oil prices have remained largely unchanged, trading in a narrow range around $73 per barrel for Brent crude.