Market
Number of states ratifying Electoral College abolition by end of 2025?
3
Senate Democrats•Electoral College•Brian Schatz•Hawaii•Dick Durbin•Illinois•Peter Welch•Vermont•Schatz•Senate Judiciary Committee
Resolution / Starting Odds
0-10 • 25%
11-20 • 25%
21-30 • 25%
31 or more • 25%
Official announcements from state legislatures and the National Archives
Story
Senate Democrats Introduce Bill to Abolish Electoral College, Shift to Popular Vote
Dec 16, 2024, 08:28 PM
A group of Senate Democrats has introduced legislation to abolish the Electoral College, aiming to have the President elected by a nationwide popular vote. Senators Brian Schatz of Hawaii, Dick Durbin of Illinois, and Peter Welch of Vermont are spearheading the proposed constitutional amendment, which seeks to replace the current system with one where the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide becomes President. "In an election, the person who gets the most votes should win. It's that simple," said Senator Schatz. The Senate Judiciary Committee announced the proposal, with proponents arguing that it will "restore democracy" by ensuring that every vote carries equal weight in presidential elections.
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0-5 states • 25%
6-10 states • 25%
11-15 states • 25%
More than 15 states • 25%
5 or more states change stance • 25%
0 states change stance • 25%
1-2 states change stance • 25%
3-4 states change stance • 25%
Not voted on by deadline • 34%
Passes with majority • 33%
Fails to pass • 33%
Passes with majority • 33%
Fails to pass • 33%
Not voted on by deadline • 34%
Majority oppose • 33%
Majority support • 33%
Evenly split • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Majority opposed • 25%
No clear majority • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Majority in favor • 25%
More than 38 states • 25%
Exactly 38 states • 25%
Recognition revoked • 25%
Less than 38 states • 25%