Market
Next US policy measure on foreign influence operations by end of 2025?
2
China•United States•United Kingdom•Chinese•Communist Party•The Economist•Party•Chinese Communist Party•United Front Work Department•Lady Bates•Tory
Resolution / Starting Odds
New sanctions on Chinese entities • 25%
Increased funding for counter-espionage • 25%
Stricter visa regulations • 25%
No significant policy change • 25%
Official US government announcements or legislative records
Story
China Allegedly Recruits Diaspora for Espionage; Lady Bates Cut Ties with Groups in 2020
Dec 29, 2024, 09:38 AM
Recent reports have highlighted China's alleged use of its diaspora for espionage activities in the United States and the United Kingdom. Investigations reveal that many overseas Chinese individuals may be unwittingly recruited as agents, with their involvement often blurring the lines between voluntary support for the Communist Party and coercion. The Economist noted that some members of the diaspora are genuine supporters of the Party, motivated by business interests in China. Concerns have escalated regarding the tactics employed by the Chinese Communist Party's United Front Work Department, which reportedly utilizes both incentives and pressures to engage individuals in espionage. Amid these revelations, Lady Bates, a Tory peer, disclosed that she severed ties with China-linked groups in 2020 after becoming aware of potential espionage risks. This situation underscores the growing scrutiny of China's influence operations abroad.
View original story
Similar markets
New legislation • 25%
Diplomatic actions • 25%
No new measures • 25%
Increased surveillance • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant actions • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
New legislation introduced • 25%
Federal Election Commission • 25%
Homeland Security • 25%
State Governments • 25%
Department of Justice • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
New cybersecurity measures • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Diplomatic initiatives • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other • 25%
Increased cyber defense funding • 25%
New cybersecurity legislation • 25%
International cyber cooperation agreements • 25%
California • 25%
Florida • 25%
Texas • 25%
New York • 25%
