Market
New Agreement for Hostages' Release Between Israel and Hamas by June 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Israeli and Hamas officials and news reports
Story
Palestinians Return to Northern Gaza After Hostage Deal, First Time in Over a Year
Jan 27, 2025, 07:57 AM
Tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians have begun returning to the heavily destroyed northern Gaza Strip for the first time in over a year, after Israel lifted its closure under a fragile ceasefire agreement with Hamas. The mass return follows an agreement between Israel and Hamas for the release of six additional hostages, including Israeli woman Arbel Yehud. Palestinians started moving through the Netzarim Corridor and along the Al-Rashid and Salah al-Din streets, on foot and in vehicles, to reach their homes in the north. The Israeli blockade of northern Gaza had been in place since the early weeks of the 15-month war with Hamas, which has left the area devastated. The flow of returning residents is expected to continue in the coming days.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Humanitarian aid in exchange • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Agreement reached and hostages exchanged • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations continue with no agreement • 25%