Market
Iran's missile production restored to pre-attack levels by Oct 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international defense organizations or Iranian government statements
Story
Israel's F-35 Jets Disable Iran's Air Defense, Impact Missile Production
Dec 5, 2024, 09:04 AM
Israel conducted a significant retaliatory strike against Iran on October 26, utilizing over 100 fifth-generation fighter jets, including F-35s, to disable nearly the entirety of Iran's air defense system. According to Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff of the United Kingdom, the attack involved fewer than 100 munitions, with no aircraft coming within 100 miles of the target in the first wave. The operation not only disrupted Iran's air defenses but also set back its ballistic missile production capabilities by a year.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other • 25%
Significant deceleration • 25%
Significant acceleration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Military actions • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Cyberattacks • 25%
Missile technology • 25%
Cyber warfare • 25%
Drone technology • 25%
Naval capabilities • 25%