Market
How will the new Syrian administration respond to the YPG presence by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
YPG disbands • 25%
YPG integrates into Syrian forces • 25%
YPG remains unchanged • 25%
YPG relocates • 25%
Official statements from the Syrian government and reports from international news agencies
Story
Turkey Threatens Military Action in Northeastern Syria Against YPG Unless Foreign Fighters and PKK Leaders Depart
Jan 7, 2025, 07:14 PM
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has warned that Turkey will launch a military operation against the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in northeastern Syria if the group does not meet Ankara's demands, including disbanding itself. Fidan emphasized that the new Syrian administration must address the issue of the YPG's presence, which Turkey considers a terrorist group linked to the PKK. He stated that foreign fighters from Turkey, Iran, and Iraq must leave Syria immediately, and PKK leaders, whose names are known to Turkey, should also depart. Fidan added that if these conditions are not met, a military operation would be the solution. He also mentioned that Turkey aims for a bloodless transition and has the capability to manage prisons and detention camps holding Daesh terrorists in Syria if the new Syrian leadership is unable to do so.
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Minor reduction • 25%
Significant reduction • 25%
No change • 25%
Increase in presence • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Military victory for Turkey • 25%
Peaceful agreement reached • 25%
No official response • 25%
Support • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Controlled by Turkey-backed forces • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by YPG/DEAŞ forces • 25%
Remains contested • 25%
Condemnation by international community • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Support from some countries • 25%
Opposition-led • 25%
Coalition government • 25%
Military-led • 25%
Other • 25%
Opposed • 25%
Welcoming and cooperative • 25%
Cautious but accepting • 25%
Indifferent • 25%