Market
How will outside spending change in 2026 U.S. elections compared to 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in outside spending compared to 2024 • 25%
Decrease in outside spending compared to 2024 • 25%
No significant change in outside spending • 25%
Data unavailable or inconclusive • 25%
Reports on campaign finance from organizations such as the Center for Responsive Politics
Story
Citizens United Decision Marks 15 Years of Increased 'Dark Money' Influence in U.S. Elections
Jan 21, 2025, 04:45 PM
Fifteen years after the Supreme Court's Citizens United v. FEC decision, the ruling continues to be a focal point of debate over the influence of 'dark money' in U.S. elections. The decision, which struck down a ban on limiting independent expenditures by corporations, unions, and other groups, has been credited with ushering in an era of unprecedented campaign spending. Critics argue that it has shifted political power away from voters and toward billionaires and corporate interests, leading to increased election costs and reduced transparency. The ruling has also facilitated the rise of super PACs, which can raise and spend unlimited sums of money, often funded by anonymous donors through 501(c)(4) organizations. The impact of Citizens United was notably evident in the 2024 election cycle, where outside groups spent $4.3 billion, a significant increase from previous cycles. Progressive groups and Democratic lawmakers have called for the decision to be overturned, citing its detrimental effect on democracy.
View original story
Similar markets
Increase by more than 20% • 25%
Decrease by more than 20% • 25%
Decrease by up to 20% • 25%
Increase by up to 20% • 25%
Existing fundraisers increase influence • 25%
New major fundraisers emerge • 25%
Other changes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Significantly higher than 2022 • 25%
Slightly higher than 2022 • 25%
About the same as 2022 • 25%
Lower than 2022 • 25%
Other • 25%
Elon Musk • 25%
George Soros • 25%
Charles Koch • 25%
No significant change in contribution patterns • 25%
Balanced contributions to both parties • 25%
Increased contributions to Democratic candidates • 25%
Increased contributions to Republican candidates • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Looser regulations • 25%
Stricter regulations • 25%
Major reforms enacted • 25%
No changes • 25%
Increased restrictions • 25%
Minor adjustments made • 25%
Same Role • 25%
Decreased Role • 25%
Increased Role • 25%
Ceases Operations • 25%
Some successfully challenged • 25%
Majority successfully challenged • 25%
Few successfully challenged • 25%
None successfully challenged • 25%
No contributions • 25%
Increase in contributions • 25%
Decrease in contributions • 25%
Same level of contributions • 25%
State Governments • 25%
Department of Justice • 25%
Federal Election Commission • 25%
Homeland Security • 25%