Market
How will major chocolate manufacturers respond to the cocoa shortage by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Price increases • 25%
Reduced product sizes • 25%
Alternative sourcing • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Press releases and news reports from major chocolate manufacturers
Story
Hershey Seeks CFTC Approval to Buy Over 90,000 Metric Tons of Cocoa, Nine Times More Than Allowed, Amid Record Prices
Jan 8, 2025, 06:04 PM
Hershey is seeking approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to purchase over 90,000 metric tons of cocoa on the ICE Futures exchange in New York. This request comes amid global cocoa shortages that have driven prices to record levels. The chocolate manufacturer aims to acquire nine times more cocoa than is typically allowed by the exchange, as the cocoa market is projected to experience another deficit.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increased awareness but not consumption • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in both • 25%
Increased awareness and consumption • 25%
Merger approved with conditions • 25%
No decision by deadline • 25%
Merger approved without conditions • 25%
Merger rejected • 25%
Mondelez withdraws bid • 25%
Acquisition rejected • 25%
Acquisition completed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Successful acquisition • 25%
No attempt made • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Failed acquisition • 25%
Remain stable • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase by 10-20% • 25%
Increase by more than 20% • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase • 25%
No Change • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
More than 10 new products • 25%
1 to 4 new products • 25%
No new products • 25%
5 to 10 new products • 25%
Implement stricter supply chain audits • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increase transparency reports • 25%
Publicly deny allegations • 25%