Market
How many Republican senators will oppose Hegseth's confirmation by June 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
0-1 • 25%
2-3 • 25%
4-5 • 25%
More than 5 • 25%
Public statements or official voting records
Story
Sen. Tillis Assures Witness of Hegseth's Alleged Abuse, Votes Yes on Pentagon Confirmation
Jan 28, 2025, 01:37 AM
Sen. Thom Tillis (R., N.C.) assured a witness, Pete Hegseth’s former sister-in-law, that her sworn statement regarding Hegseth's alleged alcohol abuse and abusive behavior towards his second wife could sway Republican senators to oppose Hegseth's confirmation to lead the Pentagon. Despite this assurance, Tillis voted in favor of Hegseth, ultimately clinching his confirmation to lead the Pentagon. The witness was led to believe that her statement would carry weight and potentially move three votes, including Tillis's, against the nomination. However, Tillis's vote in favor of Hegseth suggests that the allegations were deemed unsupported.
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Similar markets
0-5 Senators • 25%
16 or more Senators • 25%
11-15 Senators • 25%
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Three • 25%
Two • 25%
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Two • 25%
Three • 25%
Four or more • 25%
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No • 50%
6-10 Democrats support • 25%
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1-5 Democrats support • 25%
11 to 20 • 25%
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5 to 10 • 25%
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21 to 30 • 25%
10 to 20 • 25%
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50-74% support • 25%
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Confirmed along party lines • 25%
Confirmed with bipartisan support • 25%
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Rejected with bipartisan opposition • 25%