Market
How many oil companies will settle with Honolulu before trial by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
None • 25%
One • 25%
Two to three • 25%
Four or more • 25%
Publicly available court records or announcements regarding settlements
Story
Supreme Court Allows Honolulu to Seek Billions from Sunoco, Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP in Climate Lawsuit
Jan 13, 2025, 02:55 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has declined to hear appeals from oil companies, allowing a climate change lawsuit brought by Honolulu to proceed in state court. The lawsuit, which seeks billions of dollars and aims to hold oil and gas companies like Sunoco, Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and BP accountable for allegedly concealing and misrepresenting the climate-change impacts of their fossil fuel products, was initially filed in Hawaii state court. The oil companies had sought to have the case moved to federal court, arguing that federal law should preempt the state's claims. However, the Hawaii Supreme Court previously ruled that the lawsuit could move forward, focusing on the companies' marketing practices rather than emissions regulation. This decision by the U.S. Supreme Court clears the way for Honolulu to pursue its claims, which include allegations of creating a public nuisance and failing to warn the public about the risks posed by fossil fuels.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Honolulu wins • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Oil companies win • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Settlement reached • 25%
Honolulu wins • 25%
Sunoco and Shell win • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
$1 billion to $5 billion • 25%
$500 million to $1 billion • 25%
Less than $500 million • 25%
More than $5 billion • 25%
None • 25%
4 to 6 • 25%
More than 6 • 25%
1 to 3 • 25%
Seek settlement • 25%
No change • 25%
Request case dismissal • 25%
Appeal to higher court • 25%
No damages awarded • 25%
$1 billion to $5 billion • 25%
Less than $1 billion • 25%
More than $5 billion • 25%