Market
How many illegal immigrants will be deported by December 31, 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 100,000 • 25%
100,000 to 500,000 • 25%
500,001 to 1,000,000 • 25%
More than 1,000,000 • 25%
Reports from the Department of Homeland Security or credible news outlets
Story
Trump's Border Czar Announces Mass Deportations Starting with Criminals on Inauguration Day
Dec 19, 2024, 02:46 AM
Incoming border czar Tom Homan has announced that mass deportations will begin on the first day of Donald Trump's presidency, set for January 20. Homan emphasized that the focus will initially be on deporting criminals, but the scope will eventually expand to include all illegal immigrants. He stated that any illegal immigrant in the country should be prepared for potential arrest and deportation, as there is no limit to the number of people they aim to deport. Homan also mentioned that illegal immigrants would be better off leaving the country voluntarily to avoid formal deportation and the associated bars on returning to the U.S.
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1 million to 1.5 million • 25%
More than 1.5 million • 25%
Less than 500,000 • 25%
500,000 to 1 million • 25%
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1 million to 2 million • 25%
500,000 to 1 million • 25%
100,000 to 250,000 • 25%
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250,001 to 500,000 • 25%
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Less than 500,000 • 25%
500,000 to 1 million • 25%
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1 million to 2 million • 25%
Other gangs • 25%
Venezuelan gangs • 25%
MS-13 • 25%
No significant deportations • 25%
More than 10 million • 25%
Less than 1 million • 25%
1 to 5 million • 25%
5 to 10 million • 25%
Less than 500,000 • 25%
1 million to 2 million • 25%
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500,000 to 1 million • 25%
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3-5 million • 25%
1-3 million • 25%
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1 million • 25%
2 million • 25%
50,000 to 100,000 • 25%
100,001 to 150,000 • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
More than 150,000 • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
300,001 to 500,000 • 25%
Less than 100,000 • 25%
More than 500,000 • 25%
100,000 to 300,000 • 25%