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Market
Level of foreign recruits' military involvement in Ukraine by October 31, 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
High involvement • 33%
Moderate involvement • 33%
Low involvement • 34%
Reports from credible news agencies, official statements from military sources
Story
Kremlin Forces Migrants, Including Nigerians, to Fight in Ukraine
Jun 10, 2024, 01:26 AM
The Kremlin has reportedly forced thousands of migrants and foreign students to fight alongside Russian troops in its war against Ukraine. European officials have assessed that these individuals, many from African nations, are being compelled to join the military, particularly in the Kharkiv region. Bloomberg reports indicate that Russian officials have been threatening to cease visa renewals for those who refuse to enlist, including Nigerians.
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Increased military engagement • 33%
Unchanged military engagement • 34%
Decreased military engagement • 33%
Limited to strategic forces • 33%
Involvement of multiple military branches • 33%
Participation of allied countries • 34%
High enrollment • 33%
Moderate enrollment • 33%
Low enrollment • 34%
Significant increase • 33%
Moderate increase • 33%
Minimal increase • 34%
Increased international support • 25%
Maintained at current levels • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Less than 50 • 33%
50-100 • 34%
More than 100 • 33%
Decreased conflict intensity • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Increased conflict intensity • 33%
Policy reforms announced • 33%
New oversight mechanisms introduced • 33%
No significant changes • 34%
Below 50 • 25%
50-100 • 25%
101-150 • 25%
More than 150 • 25%
Support increases • 33%
Support remains steady • 34%
Support decreases • 33%