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Market
Impact of Starlink disruptions on military operations by late 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant impact on drone operations • 25%
Limited impact due to alternative solutions • 25%
No impact on ground operations • 25%
Increased reliance on non-satellite communications • 25%
Military analysis and public military statements
Story
Russia Disrupts Elon Musk's Starlink, Causing Outages in Ukraine
May 24, 2024, 01:20 PM
Russia has increasingly deployed advanced technology to disrupt the operation of Starlink communications, which is crucial for Ukraine's battlefield internet. According to reports, this interference has led to more outages on the northern front battle line, significantly impacting the U.S. and Ukrainian military operations. The New York Times and other sources indicate that Russia's ability to jam Starlink has evolved over the past two years, rendering it less effective for the U.S. army and Ukrainian forces in coordinating their operations, collecting intelligence, and launching drone attacks. Elon Musk's satellite internet service is facing significant challenges due to Russia's electronic warfare capabilities.
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Significant impact • 33%
Moderate impact • 34%
Minimal impact • 33%
Highly Improved Efficiency • 33%
Moderately Improved Efficiency • 33%
No Improvement • 34%
Technological countermeasures • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Widely Adopted • 33%
Limited Use • 33%
Not Adopted • 34%
No significant impact • 25%
Minor disruptions • 25%
Moderate disruptions • 25%
Severe disruptions • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Under 10,000 users • 25%
10,001 to 30,000 users • 25%
30,001 to 50,000 users • 25%
Over 50,000 users • 25%
Significant Impact • 33%
Moderate Impact • 34%
No Impact • 33%
Significant improvement • 33%
Moderate improvement • 33%
No improvement • 33%
No impact • 25%
Minor disruptions • 25%
Moderate disruptions • 25%
Severe disruptions • 25%
Significant positive impact • 33%
Moderate impact • 34%
No noticeable impact • 33%