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How will Trump's tax cuts impact the U.S. deficit by end of 2026?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase deficit by over $4 trillion • 25%
Increase deficit by $2-4 trillion • 25%
Increase deficit by less than $2 trillion • 25%
Decrease deficit • 25%
Reports from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) or other official economic analyses
Story
Trump Vows Largest Tax Cuts, Slashing Corporate Rate to 15%
Dec 22, 2024, 03:41 PM
On the seventh anniversary of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, President-elect Donald Trump pledged to deliver the largest tax cuts in U.S. history in 2025. He vowed to eliminate the estate tax, reduce the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, and described his plan as "the largest tax cuts in the history of our country." While several Republican lawmakers expressed support for extending and enhancing the tax cuts to boost the economy and protect the American dream, critics argued that extending the tax cuts would add nearly $4 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years.
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Less than $5 trillion • 25%
$5 trillion to $7 trillion • 25%
$7 trillion to $9 trillion • 25%
More than $9 trillion • 25%
Both cuts implemented • 25%
Only capital gains cut • 25%
Only dividend cut • 25%
Neither cut implemented • 25%
Less than $1 trillion • 25%
$1 trillion to $1.5 trillion • 25%
$1.5 trillion to $2 trillion • 25%
More than $2 trillion • 25%
Both cuts implemented • 25%
Only capital gains cut implemented • 25%
Only dividend tax cut implemented • 25%
Neither cut implemented • 25%
Increased by more than $1 trillion • 33%
Increased by less than $1 trillion • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Less than $500 billion • 25%
$500 billion to $1 trillion • 25%
$1 trillion to $1.4 trillion • 25%
More than $1.4 trillion • 25%
Passed as proposed • 25%
Passed with amendments • 25%
Rejected • 25%
No vote by deadline • 25%
Less than $10 trillion • 25%
$10 trillion to $12 trillion • 25%
$12 trillion to $15 trillion • 25%
More than $15 trillion • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
Neutral impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
Increase in GDP • 25%
Decrease in GDP • 25%
Increase in inflation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase by more than 2% • 25%
Increase by 1-2% • 25%
Increase by less than 1% • 25%
No increase or decrease • 25%
