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How will the U.S. resolve the debt ceiling issue by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%
Government shutdown occurs • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. Congress or Treasury Department
Story
U.S. Treasury to Implement Extraordinary Measures on January 21 to Avoid $36 Trillion Debt Ceiling Breach
Jan 17, 2025, 11:16 PM
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has announced that the Treasury Department will implement 'extraordinary measures' starting January 21 to prevent the government from breaching the statutory debt ceiling. This action will be taken the day after President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration. Yellen communicated this decision in a letter to congressional leaders, highlighting the uncertainty regarding how long these measures can be sustained due to challenges in forecasting future government payments and receipts. The measures include suspending investments into the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund and the Postal Service Retiree Health Benefits Fund, which will be reimbursed once Congress raises or suspends the debt limit. Yellen urged Congress to act promptly to protect the full faith and credit of the United States, as the current federal debt stands at approximately $36 trillion.
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