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How will the tension between Japan and China over the buoy be resolved by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
China removes the buoy • 25%
Joint monitoring agreement • 25%
Continued tension • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from Japanese or Chinese governments or major news outlets
Story
Japan Criticizes China's Installation of Buoy Over Southern Continental Shelf
Jul 5, 2024, 08:36 PM
Japan has confirmed that China has installed a buoy in the high seas over Japan's southern continental shelf in the Pacific Ocean, specifically in the waters off Shikoku and north of Okinotori Island. The Japanese government is examining the purpose of the buoy, which Beijing claims is intended to monitor tsunamis. However, the installation has been criticized by Japan for lacking adequate explanation and is seen as a potential strain on bilateral relations. The buoy was installed in the Shikoku Basin region, and the confirmation was made on Friday.
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Increased military presence • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Japan apologizes • 25%
China accepts Japan's explanation • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Other • 25%
Peaceful negotiation • 25%
Escalation of military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Japan lodges official protest • 25%
China lodges official protest • 25%
Both lodge protests • 25%
No official protests • 25%
Formal apology from Japan • 25%
Formal protest from China • 25%
Both apology and protest • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Denial of wrongdoing • 25%
Justification of actions • 25%
Apology • 25%
Other • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
Relations break down completely • 25%
Agreement on new safety measures • 25%
Mutual expression of regret without new measures • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Philippines gains control • 25%
China gains control • 25%
Ongoing standoff • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Economic sanctions on Japan • 25%
No further action • 25%
Public apology • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severe diplomatic fallout • 25%