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How will the Mexican peso perform against the US dollar by February 2025 due to US tariffs?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Peso strengthens by more than 2% • 25%
Peso remains stable (within +/- 2%) • 25%
Peso weakens by more than 2% • 25%
Peso weakens by more than 5% • 25%
Exchange rate data from financial services such as Bloomberg or Reuters
Story
Trump to Impose 25% Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and 10% on China on First Day
Nov 26, 2024, 11:37 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has announced plans to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China on his first day in office. The proposed tariffs include a 25% rate on goods from Mexico and Canada, and a 10% rate on goods from China. These measures are part of Trump's strategy to address illegal immigration and the fentanyl crisis, accusing Mexico and Canada of facilitating these issues. The announcement has led to a 1.4% drop in the value of the Mexican peso against the dollar, while the Canadian dollar lost 1%. Trump's tariffs are also intended to push these countries to buy American products, driving U.S. manufacturing growth and securing American jobs under the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act.
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Dollar strengthens significantly • 25%
Dollar weakens significantly • 25%
Dollar remains stable • 25%
Dollar fluctuates unpredictably • 25%
Below 18 MXN/USD • 25%
18-20 MXN/USD • 25%
20-22 MXN/USD • 25%
Above 22 MXN/USD • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Formal trade agreements altered • 25%
Improved • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Deteriorated • 25%
Uncertain • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Tariffs negotiated down • 25%
Tariffs withdrawn • 25%
Ongoing tensions • 25%
Tariffs reduced • 25%
Tariffs remain unchanged • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Worsened Relations • 25%
No Change • 25%
Formal Trade Dispute • 25%
GDP decreases by more than 2% • 25%
GDP decreases by 1-2% • 25%
GDP decreases by less than 1% • 25%
No decrease in GDP • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Slight deterioration • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%