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How will tensions involving North Korea, the U.S., and China resolve by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official diplomatic announcements and reports in major international news outlets
Story
U.S. Seeks China's Help to Prevent North Korean Troops in Combat Position from Aiding Russia
Nov 1, 2024, 05:31 AM
The Biden administration is seeking China's assistance to prevent North Korean troops from aiding Russia in its conflict with Ukraine. According to the New York Times, U.S. officials are using diplomatic channels to convey threats to North Korea through China as North Korean troops move into combat position. This move highlights the complex dynamics between the U.S., China, and North Korea, as Kim Jong Un has historically resented North Korea's dependence on China. Despite ongoing competition and confrontation between the U.S. and China, the U.S. aims to leverage China's influence over North Korea in this geopolitical issue.
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Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
Continued military standoff • 25%
Escalation to conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
UN sanctions on North Korea • 25%
Mediation efforts by a third party • 25%
Military aid to South Korea • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
Relations with China improve • 25%
Relations with Russia improve • 25%
Relations with China worsen • 25%
Relations with Russia worsen • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Decreased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Military escalation occurs • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
De-escalation and talks • 25%
Continued propaganda and balloon launches • 25%
Military confrontation • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased sanctions on North Korea • 25%
Military intervention by international coalition • 25%
Diplomatic resolution involving North Korea • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Military conflict initiated • 25%
Diplomatic resolution achieved • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Formal peace agreement reached • 25%
Significant reduction in military activities • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions or conflict • 25%
Closer ties with Russia • 25%
New alliance with China • 25%
Improved relations with South Korea • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Troops withdrawn • 25%
Troops remain • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Other resolution • 25%