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Market
How will Russian oil export volumes change by the end of Q1 2025 due to the new sanctions?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase • 25%
No change • 25%
Decrease by less than 10% • 25%
Decrease by more than 10% • 25%
Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) or similar reputable energy market analysts.
Story
Biden Administration to Sanction Over 100 Russian Tankers Over $60 Price Cap Before Trump's Inauguration
Jan 7, 2025, 03:31 AM
The Biden administration is set to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil exports, targeting over 100 tankers involved in transporting Russian crude oil sold above the $60 per barrel price cap set by Western countries. These sanctions aim to reduce Russia's oil revenues amid its ongoing war with Ukraine. The move comes as part of a broader strategy to enforce the price cap, which was established to limit Russia's financial resources for its military operations while maintaining global energy market stability. The sanctions are expected to be implemented before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025. The sanctions package is rumored to also encompass two Russian oil companies, oil traders, Russian insurance firms, and potentially Chinese banks involved in facilitating Russian oil trades.
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Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Increase domestic sales • 25%
Reduce production • 25%
Seek alternative markets • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Price adjustments • 25%
New trade partners • 25%
Increased use of 'dark fleet' • 25%
Moderate decrease • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant decrease • 25%
Increase • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase by more than 10% • 25%
Increase by 5-10% • 25%
North America • 25%
Middle East • 25%
Other regions • 25%
Africa • 25%
Decrease by less than 5% • 25%
Decrease by 5% or more • 25%
Increase • 25%
No Change • 25%
Remain stable ($65-$70 per barrel) • 25%
Increase moderately ($70-$80 per barrel) • 25%
Increase significantly (above $80 per barrel) • 25%
Decrease (below $65 per barrel) • 25%
