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How will key international players react to Barghouti's release?
5
Israel•Marwan Barghouti•Fatah•Hamas•Barghouti•Gaza•West Bank•Palestinian•Palestinian Authority•Majid Faraj•United States
Resolution / Starting Odds
Support from EU • 25%
Condemnation from US • 25%
Neutral response from Russia • 25%
Support from Arab League • 25%
Official statements from key international actors and credible news sources
Story
Israel May Release Fatah's Barghouti to Gaza or Abroad Amid PA Opposition
May 5, 2024, 02:58 PM
Reports indicate that Israel may agree to release Marwan Barghouti, a prominent Fatah leader, as part of a hostage deal with Hamas. Barghouti, arrested in 2002 and serving a five-year sentence, could be released to Gaza or abroad but not to the West Bank, according to conditions set by Israel. This potential release is seen as significant for Palestinian politics, with Barghouti viewed as a unifying figure capable of bridging the Fatah-Hamas divide and a supporter of the two-state solution. However, senior Palestinian Authority officials, including Majid Faraj and Hussein al-Sheikh, have reportedly requested his exclusion from the deal. The United States has also agreed to remove Barghouti's name from potential prisoner swap lists presented by Hamas.
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Similar markets
Widespread international condemnation • 20%
Support from key allies of Israel • 40%
Minimal international reactions • 40%
Widespread condemnation • 33%
Widespread support • 33%
Mixed or neutral reactions • 34%
Strong condemnation • 33%
Mild condemnation • 33%
No substantial reaction • 34%
Increased sanctions on Syria • 25%
No change in international policies • 25%
Enhanced diplomatic efforts for resolution • 25%
Military intervention discussions • 25%
US supports EU's decision • 25%
Russia opposes EU's decision • 25%
China remains neutral • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
UN condemnation • 25%
NATO intervention • 25%
Sanctions on Yemen • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation • 33%
Neutral • 33%
Support for Israel • 34%
Support from major nations • 25%
Opposition from major nations • 25%
Neutral stance from major nations • 25%
No clear global consensus • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 33%
Mixed reactions • 33%
Widespread support • 33%
UN condemnation • 25%
US support for Taiwan • 25%
Chinese diplomatic protest • 25%
No significant international reaction • 25%
Positive reaction if released due to Trump's intervention • 25%
Negative reaction if released due to Trump's intervention • 25%
Positive reaction if released irrespective of US election • 25%
Negative reaction if released irrespective of US election • 25%
Supportive public statements • 25%
Neutral / No official statement • 25%
Condemnatory public statements • 25%
Diplomatic reconfigurations (e.g., changes in alliances) • 25%