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How will Joe Biden's polling numbers in key swing states compare to his 2020 performance by November 5, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved by more than 5 points • 25%
Improved by 0-5 points • 25%
Declined by 0-5 points • 25%
Declined by more than 5 points • 25%
Polling data from reputable sources such as FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, or major news networks
Story
Sen. Joe Manchin, Fifth Senator, Urges Biden to Exit Presidential Race: ABC News
Jul 21, 2024, 01:09 PM
Senator Joe Manchin has called on President Joe Biden to step aside from the presidential race, making him the fifth Democrat-caucusing senator to do so, according to ABC News. Manchin, who left the party in May to become an independent, expressed his respect for Biden, calling him a great President with a compassionate heart and a patriot. Manchin's call comes amid growing pressures from the Democratic Party for Biden to abandon his re-election campaign. Reports indicate that Biden's dissatisfaction with criticism from Democrats and Obama makes him more determined to continue his campaign despite some aides believing withdrawal is inevitable. Biden's current polling numbers in key swing states are trailing his 2020 performance by margins of up to 14 points.
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Similar markets
Above 50% • 25%
45% - 50% • 25%
40% - 45% • 25%
Below 40% • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Lead in 3 or more swing states • 25%
Lead in 1-2 swing states • 25%
No lead in any swing states • 25%
Trailing in all swing states • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Below 40% • 25%
40% to 49% • 25%
50% to 59% • 25%
60% or above • 25%
Donald Trump • 25%
Kamala Harris • 25%
Other (Third-party candidate) • 25%
Tie between candidates • 25%
Above 50% • 25%
40%-50% • 25%
30%-40% • 25%
Below 30% • 25%