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How much will global oil production increase by November 30, 2024, due to Libya's force majeure?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase by more than 1 million barrels per day • 25%
Increase by 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day • 25%
Increase by less than 500,000 barrels per day • 25%
No significant increase • 25%
Reports from OPEC and major financial news outlets
Story
Libya's Eastern Government Declares Force Majeure, Halts Oil Production Amid Central Bank Dispute
Aug 26, 2024, 10:36 AM
Libya's eastern government, led by parliament-appointed Prime Minister Osama Hammad, has announced a halt to all oil production and exports, citing a dispute with the Tripoli-based government over control of the Central Bank of Libya. The eastern government has declared a state of force majeure on all oil fields and ports, effectively stopping production and exports until further notice. This decision follows the Tripoli-based government's move to replace the leadership of the central bank, which has escalated tensions between the rival administrations. The announcement has had an immediate impact on global oil markets, with Brent crude prices reacting to the news. Additionally, Libya's Waha Oil Company and Sirte Oil Company have announced plans to gradually reduce output due to continued pressure.
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Resumed to pre-halt levels • 25%
Resumed but below pre-halt levels • 25%
Still halted • 25%
Increased beyond pre-halt levels • 25%
Restored to pre-blockade levels • 25%
Increased but below pre-blockade levels • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Further decreased • 25%
Below 1.5 million barrels per day • 25%
1.5 to 1.7 million barrels per day • 25%
1.7 to 1.9 million barrels per day • 25%
Above 1.9 million barrels per day • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%