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How many immigrants will self-deport due to Trump's policies by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 100,000 • 25%
100,000 to 250,000 • 25%
250,001 to 500,000 • 25%
More than 500,000 • 25%
Reports from immigration advocacy groups or official statistics from the Department of Homeland Security
Story
Trump to Issue 100 Executive Orders for Largest Deportation Operation, Prompting Self-Deportations
Jan 17, 2025, 01:03 PM
President-elect Donald Trump is set to launch a significant immigration crackdown on his first day in office, with plans to issue over 100 executive orders. These orders are expected to initiate what Trump has described as the 'largest deportation operation in U.S. history.' The actions will target various groups, including immigrants with criminal records, those with final deportation orders, and individuals with temporary protections such as Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and those who used the CBP One app for legal entry. Trump's administration aims to reverse Biden-era policies, including reinstating Title 42 and ending programs like the humanitarian parole for immigrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. The incoming administration's plans have already prompted some immigrants to leave the U.S. in what is being referred to as 'self-deportations,' driven by fears of Trump's mass deportation promises.
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More than 1,000,000 • 25%
Less than 100,000 • 25%
100,000 to 500,000 • 25%
500,001 to 1,000,000 • 25%
Policy partially implemented • 25%
Policy not implemented • 25%
Policy blocked by courts • 25%
Policy fully implemented • 25%
More than 1.5 million • 25%
Less than 500,000 • 25%
1 million to 1.5 million • 25%
500,000 to 1 million • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Implemented fully • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Halted by legal challenges • 25%
500,000 to 1 million • 25%
Less than 500,000 • 25%
1 million to 2 million • 25%
More than 2 million • 25%
Blocked by legal challenges • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Counteracted by legislation • 25%
Implemented fully • 25%
Halted by legal challenges • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Under 500,000 • 25%
500,000 to 1 million • 25%
1 million to 2 million • 25%
Over 2 million • 25%
Less than 1 million • 25%
1 to 5 million • 25%
More than 10 million • 25%
5 to 10 million • 25%
MS-13 • 25%
Venezuelan gangs • 25%
Other gangs • 25%
No significant deportations • 25%
500,000 to 1 million • 25%
1 million to 2 million • 25%
More than 2 million • 25%
Less than 500,000 • 25%
Significant decrease in undocumented immigrants • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in undocumented immigrants • 25%
Moderate decrease in undocumented immigrants • 25%