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How many casualties will result from the ongoing conflict between Mali's Tuareg rebels and Malian forces along with Wagner mercenaries by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 100 • 25%
100 to 200 • 25%
201 to 300 • 25%
More than 300 • 25%
News reports from credible sources such as Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Mali Tuareg Rebels Kill 32+ in Clashes with Malian Forces and Wagner Mercenaries Near Tinzaouatine
Jul 27, 2024, 07:20 PM
Mali's northern Tuareg rebels have reported significant clashes with Malian forces and Russian Wagner mercenaries near the Algerian border. The rebels claim to have killed and injured dozens of soldiers and Wagner mercenaries over two days of fighting. The Malian army acknowledged the loss of two soldiers and stated they had killed approximately 20 rebels. The clashes resulted in the capture of military equipment, including several MRAP armored vehicles and a Mi-24 helicopter. Footage from the scene shows over 32 corpses, primarily of Russian mercenaries, and a downed military helicopter. Local reports also indicate that Al-Qaeda’s JNIM was involved, targeting fleeing Russian forces. The fighting occurred near the towns of Tinzaouatine and Tinzawatene.
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Similar markets
Tuareg rebels gain control of more territory • 25%
Malian forces regain control of lost territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
0-20 • 25%
21-50 • 25%
51-100 • 25%
More than 100 • 25%
Malian Army • 25%
Tuareg Rebels • 25%
Wagner Group • 25%
Other • 25%
Combat with Tuareg rebels • 25%
Combat with Islamist forces • 25%
Friendly fire • 25%
Other causes • 25%
Less than 100 • 25%
100-500 • 25%
501-1000 • 25%
More than 1000 • 25%
Wagner PMC operations • 25%
Malian Armed Forces operations • 25%
ISIS attacks • 25%
Other • 25%
Malian government • 25%
Tuareg rebels • 25%
Wagner Group • 25%
Other credible sources • 25%
Less than 50 • 25%
50-100 • 25%
101-200 • 25%
More than 200 • 25%
Less than 10 • 25%
10 to 20 • 25%
21 to 30 • 25%
More than 30 • 25%