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How many cascades of IR-2M centrifuges will Iran have installed at Natanz by September 30, 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
0-5 cascades installed • 33%
6-12 cascades installed • 33%
13-18 cascades installed • 33%
IAEA report or official announcements
Story
IAEA Report: Iran to Install 8 Cascades of IR-6 and IR-2M Centrifuges at Fordow and Natanz
Jun 13, 2024, 03:33 PM
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will present a report to the Board of Governors on Thursday detailing Iran's response to a recent censure resolution. According to the report, Iran informed the IAEA on June 9 and 10 that it plans to install eight cascades, each containing 174 IR-6 centrifuges, at the Fordow enrichment plant over the next 3-4 weeks. Additionally, Iran intends to install 18 cascades of IR-2M centrifuges at the underground enrichment plant at Natanz, although no timeline for this activity was provided. The IAEA verified on June 11 that Iran had completed the installation of IR-6 centrifuges in two cascades at Fordow, with installation in four additional cascades ongoing. This information was communicated in a letter dated June 10, 2024.
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< 20% • 25%
20% to 60% • 25%
60% to 90% • 25%
> 90% • 25%
Increased compliance • 33%
No change • 33%
Further violations • 33%
Above 60% • 25%
At 60% • 25%
Below 60% but above 20% • 25%
At or below 20% • 25%
Decrease • 33%
Remain stable • 33%
Increase • 33%
Inspection occurs • 50%
No inspection occurs • 50%
None • 20%
1-2 units • 20%
3-4 units • 20%
5 units • 20%
6 units • 20%
Weapons grade capability confirmed • 25%
Advanced but not weapons grade • 25%
Significant rollback of enrichment activities • 25%
Status remains unchanged from current levels • 25%
Further increase in enriched uranium • 33%
Stable levels of enriched uranium • 33%
Decrease in enriched uranium • 34%