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Market
How long will the new French Prime Minister's tenure last?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 3 months • 25%
3 to 6 months • 25%
6 to 12 months • 25%
More than 12 months • 25%
Official records from the French government
Story
French Government Falls in No-Confidence Vote, Barnier Out, Macron to Nominate New PM
Dec 4, 2024, 07:28 PM
The French government led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier (LR-EPP) has collapsed following a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly. The motion passed with 331 votes in favor, surpassing the required 288 votes. This historic event marks the first time since 1962 that a French government has fallen due to a parliamentary no-confidence vote. President Emmanuel Macron (RE-RE) will now be tasked with nominating a new Prime Minister.
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Less than 3 months • 25%
3 to 6 months • 25%
6 to 9 months • 25%
More than 9 months • 25%
François Bayrou • 25%
A member of the Socialist Party • 25%
A centrist candidate other than François Bayrou • 25%
Other • 25%