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Market
Growth of U.S. drone production capacity by end of 2026
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant increase in capacity • 33%
Moderate increase in capacity • 33%
Minimal or no increase • 34%
Industry reports and government publications on domestic drone manufacturing
Story
House Republicans Propose 30% Tariff on Chinese Drones, Ban by 2030
May 15, 2024, 06:15 PM
House Republicans have introduced legislation proposing a 30% tariff increase on Chinese-made drones and a ban on imports containing critical Chinese components by 2030. Led by Representative Elise Stefanik, the legislation aims to reduce U.S. reliance on the Chinese Communist Party for drones critical to first responder operations. Representative Rob Wittman expressed support for the bill, emphasizing the importance of bolstering domestic drone capabilities. The bill is known as the Drones for First Responders Act.
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Advanced technology • 25%
Skilled workforce • 25%
Strategic partnerships • 25%
Government support • 25%
Significantly reduced production • 25%
Slightly reduced production • 25%
No impact on production • 25%
Increased production due to circumvention strategies • 25%
Naval drones • 20%
Space surveillance systems • 20%
Cybersecurity solutions • 20%
Artificial intelligence research • 20%
Ground combat vehicles • 20%
Autonomous Fighter Jets • 33%
AI-driven Surveillance Systems • 33%
Advanced Drones • 34%
Significant increase • 33%
Moderate increase • 34%
No significant change • 33%
Less than 4,000 • 25%
4,000 to 5,999 • 25%
6,000 to 7,999 • 25%
More than 8,000 • 25%
Less than 50,000 • 25%
50,000 to 100,000 • 25%
100,001 to 200,000 • 25%
More than 200,000 • 25%
0-5 cities • 25%
6-10 cities • 25%
11-15 cities • 25%
16 or more cities • 25%
Decrease by less than 10% • 25%
Decrease by 10% to 20% • 25%
Decrease by 20% to 30% • 25%
Decrease by more than 30% • 25%
Significant increase • 33%
Moderate increase • 33%
Minimal increase • 34%
Lockheed Martin • 25%
Northrop Grumman • 25%
Boeing • 25%
General Atomics • 25%