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Market
Global mRNA vaccine development trends post-Moderna patent win
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Acceleration in new mRNA vaccine entries • 25%
Stagnation due to legal uncertainties • 25%
Shift towards non-mRNA vaccine technologies • 25%
Increased legal battles over mRNA technologies • 25%
Global health organization reports and vaccine development updates
Story
Moderna Wins European Patent Dispute Against Pfizer, BioNTech Over COVID-19 Vaccine in Legal Battle
May 17, 2024, 10:30 PM
Moderna has emerged victorious in a European patent dispute against Pfizer and BioNTech over its COVID-19 vaccine. The European Patent Office upheld Moderna's key patent, marking a significant win in the ongoing legal battle with its rivals.
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0-5 countries • 25%
6-10 countries • 25%
11-20 countries • 25%
More than 20 countries • 25%
Recommendation against vaccines for under 50s • 25%
No change in current recommendation • 25%
Stronger endorsement of vaccines for under 50s • 25%
Recommendation under review • 25%
Under $500 million • 25%
$500 million to $1 billion • 25%
$1 billion to $2 billion • 25%
Over $2 billion • 25%
1-10 countries • 25%
11-20 countries • 25%
21-30 countries • 25%
more than 30 countries • 25%
Significant decrease in prices • 33%
Moderate decrease in prices • 34%
No significant change in prices • 33%
Positive impact • 33%
No significant impact • 34%
Negative impact • 33%
Not dominant globally • 33%
Dominant in select regions • 33%
Dominant globally • 33%
Adopted in 1-5 countries • 25%
Adopted in 6-10 countries • 25%
Adopted in 11-20 countries • 25%
Adopted in 21 or more countries • 25%
Increase in negative coverage • 25%
Neutral or balanced coverage remains • 25%
Increase in positive coverage • 25%
Significant decrease in coverage • 25%
Increased scrutiny and restrictions • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Enhanced cooperation and funding • 34%